The Market Trajectory of 1-Butene
HDPE/ LLDPE are interesting polymers for the packaging industry and are anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 6-7% in APAC despite having a global slowdown, with a CAGR of a mere ~2-3%. The APAC growth is primarily driven by increasing disposable income, changes in food habits, and urbanization, among others.
The growth is also driven by the various modifications & copolymer offerings of HDPE/LLDPE and 1-butene (C4 downstream derivatives). Usually, 3-6% (w/w) of 1-butene is preferred in the copolymer to get various grades to meet the growing performance needs of end industries. 1-butene is a promising linear alpha olefin with a major market in emerging or developing economies. It will continue to dominate the market till the early 2030s. Also, 1-butene is affordable (low cost) and accessible (availability of production technology), along with substantial consumption in commodity applications. Also, we recently witnessed significant capacity addition of 1-butene in Asia due to increasing regional demand.
In recent years, the market has started shifting towards high LAO (linear alpha derivatives), particularly 1-Hexene and 1-Octene due to their excellent optical & mechanical properties and consumer preference is also evolving towards performance-oriented packaging films. However, the market transformation may take a decade due to a lack of accessibility including production technologies which has led to supply limitations and high costs.